Climate ResiliencyClimate Resiliency Monitoring and Assessment

Wednesday, 29/11/2023 11:18
Modeling, Monitoring, Research
Research on climate change impacts, including sea level rise, storm surge, increased temperatures, extreme precipitation events and saltwater inundation, on the siting, design, and performance of BMPs to reduce nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment and enhance benefits to habitats and living resources. ++
Research is needed to increase understanding on how urban, agriculture, and natural BMP efficiencies are changing as a result of climate and how to improve BMP design under new climate reality. Specific research was identified for stormwater BMPs in the 2023 US EPA RFA: Activity 1: Vulnerability Assessment Tool - Develop vulnerability assessment tools, including documentation of methods, that will enable communities to determine which of their residential and commercial areas, municipal assets, or green infrastructure such as ponds or habitats are most vulnerable to future flooding risks and devise strategies to minimize these risks; Activity 2: Decision Support Tool - Develop a memorandum that outlines specific processes to improve local capacity to identify and select the most cost-effective risk thresholds to protect specific classes of municipal infrastructure, using the most recent Chesapeake Bay extreme rainfall predictions released in 2021; Activity 3: Establish Resilient Design Adaptations – Evaluate commonly used Bay stormwater management and restoration practices and develop guidance and criteria for design specifications that could be adapted to meet the needs of local Bay communities to improve long-term resilience of BMPs; and Activity 4: Modeling to Estimate Impact - Conduct research and modeling analysis, including estimates of uncertainty, and describe the impacts of future hydrology on simulated urban BMPs. Additionally, there is a need to update climate-informed Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curves when new climate models become available (e.g., CMIP-6)
Need is in direct response to a 2017 PSC directive to the CBP to, "Develop a better understanding of the BMP responses, including new or other emerging BMPs, to climate change conditions." This is a pressing and ongoing need of the CBP and all coastal watersheds as BMP effieciences were developed without the incorporation of potential climate change impacts.
Julie Reichert-Nguyen (julie.reichert-nguyen@noaa.gov)
Climate Change and Resiliency
2025 WIPs, Water Quality Standards Attainment and Monitoring
High In Progress Partial Resources

(17-008-01):  CBP Partnership should build upon the Tetra Tech report, an evaluation of effects of BMP implementation on each of the CBP’s management strategies, capturing both benefits and unintended consequences, if applicable, for each BMP. The product was a matrix that cross-walked the full list of CBP- approved BMPs with our current best understanding of additional benefits. This information could be made more accessible and user-friendly, possibly by incorporating results directly into the CBP Partnership’s Chesapeake Assessment and Scenario Tool (CAST) so that it could support short-term decisions and be used to prioritize further work on quantification of benefits besides water quality. 

(17-008-02):  Pursue efforts for more quantification. For a clearly defined subset of practices and their respective benefits, the workshop participants recommended assembling the appropriate experts to examine methods to quantify additional benefits. The outcome would be a proposed framework and approach by which the quantification of these and other future identified benefits from implementation of the BMPs could be measured and incorporated into Partnership’s CAST tool. Sources of funding and mechanisms for soliciting research should be considered simultaneously to promote likelihood of future action. An RFP and funding to initiate and sustain this effort should be pursued.

(17-004-01): The Partnership should work toward the goal of developing a true multi-objective optimization tool. As the system development progresses from screening to simulation then to optimization, data, information, and components should be integrated into the decision support tools as soon as they are available. A likely progression for the development of such components may include: 
1. BMP co-benefit scores to inform user choices
2. Expanded understanding of BMP response and non-linearity’s 
3. BMP cost effectiveness data to inform user choices
4. Identification of dominant BMPs 
5. Generic screening level optimization solutions 
6. Geographic targeting strategies 
7. Single objective optimization system to minimize costs of achieving nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment target loads using a select set of cost effective BMPs where response is understood 
8. Application of some co-benefits scoring based on results of single objective optimization 
9. Iteration of cost optimization with co-benefit based constraints 
10. Expanded understanding of BMP reduction reliability 
11. Expanded understanding of co-benefit quantification, monetization or benefit relevant indicators 
12. Drive towards true multiple objective optimization to maximize co-benefits and reduction reliability as well as minimize costs.  (16-005-05): Recommendations for the agricultural forecasting method used to forecast livestock numbers and cropland acreages:   
1. We recommend that the effect of climate change on agricultural forecasting be considered in future forecasting efforts, since climate change may impact crop selection and nutrient inputs.
2. We recommend that the alpha and beta weighting factors of 0.8 and 0.2 be reevaluated, and that this be based on the agricultural acres and changes in cropland (or individual crop), and not validated using the poultry or cattle data.  Trends in crop acreage cannot be expected to follow trends in animal numbers.  Whatever data sources are eventually used to establish the weighting factors, they should be validated, and the hypothesized cause and effect relationship justified.

(15-002-03): The CBP partnership should continue efforts to improve reporting and tracking of Best Management Practices (BMPs). Bay Program leadership and staff should ensure that any partnership-derived assumptions and decision rules applied are transparent in the processing of reported BMP data. The CBP partnership should implement continuous monitoring for locations, times, and constituents that maximize utility for improving assessment of effectiveness of management actions.

(18-004-04): Develop monitoring protocols and parameters. To learn more about the impact of
climate change and extreme events on the structural integrity and effectiveness of BMPs,
workshop participants identified the need to: Communicate the importance of establishing baseline conditions and conducting
routine site assessments; Develop post-storm monitoring guidelines and data collection parameters (e.g.,
nutrient, sediment, toxics, thermal and benthic impacts, stream and watershed
effects, and vegetation longevity); Establish methods to collect accurate localized climatological data (i.e., rain
gauge) to support trend and impact assessments; and Include climate and extreme event impact data collection parameters into existing
CBP BMP verification protocols  

(18-005-08): Management Research suggestions: Translate knowledge of BMPs into “management zones of effectiveness” that articulate a BMP’s zone of influence and expectations of what a management action will do. Include
additivity through time and the cumulative effect of expectations; Improve understanding of location-dependence (i.e., upper vs lower tributaries and low versus high salinity regions) of water quality-trend drivers and responses.; Continue synthesis of both broader regional stories and local-level stories.; Connect nutrients and water-quality trends to living resources in both directions, i.e. effects of living resources on water quality and effects of water quality on living resources.; Expand research on BMP performance.; Expand research into the role of different nutrient forms (dissolved versus particulate) on
estuarine responses to loads.; Establish an ongoing mechanism for supporting synthesis activities, with requirements for the management-relevance of topics and for the composition of groups. 
Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC): STAC-funded climate science synthesis project (Virginia Tech) – assessing climate resilience of urban, ag, and natural BMPs
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): NOAA-EPA Inter-Agency Agreement Funding (Virginia Tech) – assessing climate change impacts to tidal water BMPs with habitat/fish co-benefits
Chesapeake Stormwater Ntework: Chesapeake Stormwater Network-EPA Cooperative Agreement – climate vulnerability analysis of urban stormwater BMPs
EPA: 2023 US EPA RFA for urban stormwater management BMPs
Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC): STAC water temperature workshop
Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC): STAC workshop on the enhancement of data collection and assessment needs for the monitoring network
Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS): NRCS study on Conowago superstation sediment load reduction study
EPA: EPA region 3 office of Research and Development
University of Maryland (UMD): UMD tool to assess climate resilience of green infrastructure for the Chesapeake Bay region (contact Tuana Phillips)